Donald Trump, the 45th President of USA, was earlier a very successful businessman. Even now he has personal business interests all over the world including India. Way back in 2013,
Trump Vs Xi Jinping
Once again the world has become bi-polar. Undoubtedly US and China are the two big superpowers! China's growth whether in trade or as a military power, during last 2 decades has been phenomenal. Since its entry into World Trade Organization (WTO),
Trump is confronting China over
its development tactics which
includes alleged stealing or pressurizing foreign
companies to hand over technology.
American officials worry Chinese plans to create tech champions in
fields including robotics, biotech and artificial intelligence will erode US
industrial leadership.
Trump has declared a trade war with China by imposing heavy
tariff on many of the imports from China. China too is retaliating by imposing steep tariff hikes on US imports. As a result during last six months, China has lost about one-fifth of its market capitalization.
Trump Vs European Union (EU), Canada & Mexico
Trump's bullying tactics have not even left its traditional allies undisturbed. European Union already reeling under the impact of impending Briton's exit (Brexit), has received shocks from Trump. Trump is arm-twisting all NATO countries, which includes EU and other US-allies to double their military expenditure to 4% of their GDPs from the present 2%. Otherwise he has threatened them with adverse sanctions. Already he has imposed heavy tariffs on imports of cars, Aluminium and Steel. Obviously the Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel and other NATO leaders are worried.
Angela's blossoming relationship with Russian Premier Putin has not gone well with Trump. Trump is extremely unhappy with Germany's $11 Billion Baltic pipe line with Russia for import of oil.
Trump Vs India
Businessman Trump believes in a single-point agenda 'buy American and hire American'! His restrictions on H1B visas has brought nightmares to our Non-Resident Indians. Trump has
imposed steep tariff-rise on certain Indian imports too. Moreover he is threatening India to restrict its oil imports from Iran. Our arms deal with Russia too has made Trump red faced!
Trade war impacts
In a trade war too, no body can be a winner. It is bound to cause collateral damages to all economies of the world. Manufacturing world depends on supply-chains and trade wars are certain to disturb this supply chain. If China's steel can't be sold to US, China may not buy iron ore from India. Instead it may dump its steel on India and other countries!
Share markets may tank,
initiating flight of capital from emerging markets to the safety of the home
market, making currencies and interest rates move in wholly undesirable
ways.
Has India moved closer to China?
It seems trade war has pushed China
closer to India. Modi-Xi have met twice
since April pledging to strengthen bilateral ties. China has eased imports from India on
non-basmati rice, anti-cancer drugs and agreed to share data on flow of rivers
between two countries during flood season.
Even before trade war, China had become the biggest trade partner of India, although imports from China are substantially higher.
However skeptics don't believe that Indo-China relations have improved. China's strategic relationship with Pak is always point of concern for India.
India also can't ignore US. It is our second biggest trade partner with a total trade of $ 75 Billion, with a positive surplus favouring us.
Has trade war made Trump more popular in US?
I have spoken to a couple of NRIs, who say Yes! After long, jobs have become easily available to locals. Moreover the slogan 'buy American and hire American' is bound to enthuse natives. A few even say that it is no wonder if Trump gets a second term!
But Trump is clever enough not to hike tariffs on consumer goods. If done so, the import dependent American economy may witness steep price-rise annoying the common men.
But Trump can't ignore that America is a country built by immigrants and it depends on cheaper goods and labour imported from all over the world. In another 2-3 decades, it is bound to receive competition from other emerging countries like India too.
China too should restrain its trade and geo-political aggression. Unfair tactics are bound to create enemies who may team-up on a future day.
China too should restrain its trade and geo-political aggression. Unfair tactics are bound to create enemies who may team-up on a future day.
Is this trade war the biggest ever?
Historians say no. During the times of great depression of 1930s, US had imposed the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff on over 20,000 imported goods. This action was also retaliated by the then US trading partners, deepening the depression crisis.
When will the present trade wars end?
It is a trillion dollar question! Both China and US have potential to continue it for years. In the meanwhile emerging countries like India have to tread with caution, balancing the relationship with both the sides, besides taking care of their all-round trade and development.
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Nicely explained and written sir...it is very knowledgeable article, it gives the clear picture of current trade war happening around the globe...
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and responding. Pl provide me you most used personal e mail id.
DeleteLakshminarayana K
I fully agree with the contents of this article. Trade war results in lose lose situation to all as all the countries are interdependent for one or the other reason. Nicely written and apt.Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThank you sir for readibg and responding.
DeleteYour appreciation is my inspiration.
Lakshminarayana K
Very good choice of topic and well explained. Overall these trade wars and protectionism is bad for NRIs.
ReplyDelete- Subhash
You are better exposed and placed to express your opinion on this topic.
DeleteThanks for reading and responding.
Lakshminarayana K
The present trade war is leading world economy towards distructio. Slowdown is in the offing. China is not a reliable partner. India need to address the issue.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and responding.
DeleteI agree with your words.
Please send me your most used e mail id with name.
Lakshminarayana K
In a nutshell you have explaine well explained about trade war. With war going on between big countries USA & Chaina, it is lose lose situation to emerging countries like ours. Thank you sir.Dinakara.K
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and responding. I rate your comments in high esteem as you are a deeply involved observer.
DeleteIt may not be lose_lose for India. Modi has utilized this opportunity by meeting XI JINPING twice since April seeking business and improvement of relationship. Result are there to see for all. India is the only growing economy post trade war!
Lakshminarayana K
Trade war is creats healthy competition between big countries. In this circumstances they will know their weekness and find out solution for the problems of business. Both Trumph and Modi business minded people one is big business men another cahiwala they were not true political people. We canot believe China because it is one of big enemy of Indian development so balansing world business is most necessary.
ReplyDeleteRameshkshimoga1960@gmail.co
DeleteThank you Brother Ramesh for reading and responding.
DeleteI appreciate your keen interest in almost all subjects.
Your fear on China is correct. We can't believe them.
At this situation, India has to concentrate on its trade and development while maintaining working relationship with all our trade partners.
Every Saturday I am using your all wrtings to conduct quiz programmes general knowledge developments facing Interviews facing commpetative exams so many students using this become IAS Officers Software field Police Officers Doctors etc etc . These all because Science College Arts College Commerce College Civil Diploma I studied in Hassan. All education helping my students to build their future. Thanks God given me an chance to use my knowledge .
DeleteAll the best. keep doing the good work.
DeleteLakshminarayana K
Sir, your observations are correct. Position of our country is such, country has to maintain cordial relation with both the countries for various reasons,
ReplyDeleteMurali
Thnx Mr.Murali for reading and responding.
DeletePl send me yr most used personal e mail id
Lakshminarayana K
ವ್ಯಾಪಾರ,ವ್ಯವಹಾರ ವಿಷಯದಲ್ಲಿ ಎಲ್ಲ ದೇಶಗಳೂ ತಾವು ಮೊದಲಿಗರಾಗಬೇಕೆಂದು ಬಯಸುವುದು ಸಾಮಾನ್ಯ.
ReplyDeleteವ್ಯಾಪಾರ,ವ್ಯವಹಾರದ ವಿಷಯದಲ್ಲಿ ನಮ್ಮ ದೇಶವು ದಾಪುಗಾಲು ಹಾಕುತ್ತಿರುವುದನ್ನು ನಮ್ಮ ಮಗ್ಗಲು ಮುಳ್ಳಾದ ಚೈನಾ ಖಂಡಿತಾ ಸಹಿಸುವುದಿಲ್ಲ. ನಾವು ಚೈನಾವನ್ನು ನಂಬುವಂತೆಯೂ ಇಲ್ಲ.
ಈ ಮಧ್ಯದಲ್ಲಿ ಅಮೇರಿಕ ಮತ್ತು ಚೈನಾದಂತಹ ಬ್ರುಹತ್ ರಾಷ್ಟ್ರಗಳೊಂದಿಗೆ ಭಾರತ ಆರ್ಥಿಕವಾಗಿ ಸೆಣಸಬೇಕಿದೆ.
ಈ ವಿಷಯದಲ್ಲಿ ಮೋದಿಯವರ ನೇತ್ರುತ್ವದಲ್ಲಿ ಭಾರತವು ಪ್ರಪಂಚವೇ ಅಚ್ಚರಿಪಡುವಂತೆ ಯಶಸ್ಸು ಸಾಧಿಸುತ್ತಿರುವುದು,
ಮುಂದುವರೆದ ದೇಶಗಳು ಮೂಗಿನಮೇಲೆ ಬೆರಳಿಡುವಂತೆ ಆಗಿದೆ.
ಈ TRADE WAR ಬಗ್ಗೆ ಬ್ಲಾಗ್ ಪ್ರಸ್ತುತ ವಿದ್ಯಾಮಾನಗಳಿಗೆ ಚೆನ್ನಾಗಿ ಸ್ಪಂದಿಸಿರುವ ಲೇಖನವಾಗಿದೆ.ವಿಷಯ ವೈವಿಧ್ಯವಿದೆ.
ವಂದನೆಗಳು.
ಬೇಲೂರು ದ ಶಂ ಪ್ರಕಾಶ್,
ಮೈಸೂರು.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Deleteಓದಿ ಅಭಿನಂದಿಸಿದಕ್ಕಾಗಿ ಧನ್ಯವಾಧಗಳು.
Deleteಹಲವು ದೇಶಗಳ ಪ್ರವಾಸಮಾಡಿರುವ ತಮ್ಮ ಅನುಭವ ತಮ್ಮ ವಿಶ್ಲೇಷಣೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಕಂಡುಬರುತ್ತೆ . ಅಭಿವೃದ್ಧಿಶೀಲ ರಾಷ್ಟ್ರವಾಗಿ ಭಾರತ ಎಚ್ಚರಿಕೆಯಿಂದ ಹೆಜ್ಜೆಯಿಡಬೇಕಿದೆ .
ಚೀನಾ-ಪಾಕ್ಗಳು ಒಂದಾಗಿ ನಮ್ಮ ಅಭಿವೃದ್ಧಿಗೆ ಮುಳ್ಳಾಗುವ ಸರ್ವ ಪ್ರಯತ್ನ ನಡೆಸುತ್ತಿವೆ.
ಮೋದಿಯವರ ಶ್ರಮ ಹಾಗೂ ಅಭಿವೃದ್ಧಿಗಳನ್ನು ಹಾಳುಮಾಡಲು ನಮ್ಮವರೇ ಸಾಕಾಗಿದ್ದರೆ . ೨೦೧೯ರಲ್ಲಿ ಅವರನ್ನು ತುಳಿಯುವ ಸರ್ವಪ್ರಯತ್ನಗಳು ನಡೆಯುತ್ತಿವೆ. ದೇವರ ಕೃಪೆ ಇದ್ದರೆ ಮತ್ತೊಮೆ ಮೋದಿ ನಮಗೆ ದೊರೆಯಲಿದ್ದಾರೆ .
ದೇವರ ಆಶೀರ್ವಾದ ನಮ್ಮ ದೇಶದ ಮೇಲಿರಲಿ ಎಂದು ಪ್ರಾರ್ಥಿಸೋಣ .
ತಮ್ಮವ
ಲಕ್ಷ್ಮೀನಾರಾಯಣ ಕೆ .
ವಂದನೆಗಳು ಲಕ್ಷ್ಮೀನಾರಾಯಣ್,
Deleteಬೇರೆ ಯಾವ ದೇಶದಲ್ಲೇ ಆಗಿದ್ದರೂ, ನಮ್ಮ ಪ್ರಧಾನ ಮಂತ್ರಿ ಮೋದಿಯವರ ತರಹ ಸಿಕ್ಕಿದ್ದರೆ, ಹಲವಾರು ಸಲ , ಹಲವಾರು ವರ್ಷಗಳು ಅವರನ್ನೆ ತಮ್ಮ ಪ್ರಧಾನ ಮಂತ್ರಿಯಾಗಿ ಆಯ್ಕೆ ಮಾಡಿಕೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಿದ್ದರು.
ಆದರೆ ನಮ್ಮ ದೇಶದಲ್ಲಿ ರಾಜಕಾರಣಿಗಳಿಗೆ ದೇಶದ ಅಭಿವೃದ್ಧಿಗಿಂತ ತಮ್ಮ ಹಿತಾಸಕ್ತಿಯೇ ಮುಖ್ಯವಾಗಿ, ಹೇಗಾದರೂ ಮಾಡಿ ಮೋದಿಯವರನ್ನು ೨೦೧೯ ರ ಚುನಾವಣೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಸೋಲಿಸಬೇಕೆಂಬ ಇರಾದೆ ಹೊಂದಿದ್ದು
ಅದಕ್ಕಾಗಿ ಈಗಾಗಲೆ ಪ್ರಯತ್ನಗಳು ಶುರುವಾಗಿವೆ.
ಆದರೆ ದೇಶದ ಹಿತದೃಷ್ಟಿಯಿಂದ ಮೋದಿಯವರ ನಾಯಕತ್ವ ಅನಿವಾರ್ಯವಾಗಿದೆ.
ಎಲ್ಲಾ ಒಳ್ಳೆಯದೇ ಆಗುತ್ತದೆ ಎಂದು ಆಶಿಸೋಣ. ಮೋದಿಯವರ ಒಳಿತಿಗಾಗಿ ನಾವು ಪಣತೊಡೋಣ.
ನಿಮ್ಮ ಅಂತರ್ಯ ಇದಕ್ಕಾಗಿ ಮಿಡಿಯುತ್ತಿರುವುದು ಬಹು ಸಂತಸದ ವಿಷಯ.
ಮತ್ತೊಮ್ಮೆ ನಿಮ್ಮ ವಿಷಯಾಧಾರಿತ ಬ್ಲಾಗನ್ನು ನೆನೆಯುತ್ತ ನಿಮಗೆ ವಂದನೆ ತಿಳಿಸುತ್ತಿದ್ದೇನೆ.
ಬೇಲೂರು ದ ಶಂ ಪ್ರಕಾಶ್,
ಮೈಸೂರು-೦೪
I share your sentiments. In this I request you to read my earlier blog
Deletehttp://blogbusterln.blogspot.in/2018/05/modi-arise-awake.html
A commendable job well done. Your blog has brought out in a nutshell the previling situation of trade war presently exisiting in simple language which is really appreiating. Keep continue writing on various subjects since I feel you happens to be well read in many fields. GOOD LUCK
ReplyDeleteSir...
DeleteAs usual you have complimented me. Your appreciation is my inspiration.
Please confirm whether you are from Indian bank and where we have worked together.
Lakshminarayana K
Highly informative article. India should reduce its reliance on crude which is major item of import and should focus on solar power. Should invest more on research in solar power. America had blamed oil producing countries for developing chemical weapons or weapons of mass destruction. It was not for humanitarian reasons but for oil. They can go to any extent to put the pressure. India has been a part of third world and has managed well till now. China though a big economy has to rely on others. It knows India is a big consumer and if they use such tactics we have alternatives.
ReplyDeleteIt's a good article in simple words.
Sureshji...
DeleteI am privileged to work with you.
You have handled top positions with gr8 success. Also you are a widely travelled person. Your views on the subject reflect your deep understanding.
It may take some more time to harness solar power. As mentioned by you, India has to develop its trade and relationship cautiously and move towards self-reliance.
Lakshminarayana K
Nicely written sir, the latest attack by Trump on India is definitely regarding the direct denial of H1B visa applications without a "Request For Evidence". As human resource is also a part of world trade, it becomes important how we handle these issues.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and responding.
DeleteNon-immigrants with H1B visas are most worried. Indian companies are forced to hire locals.
Illegal immigrants are inhumanly treated.
We Indians have to learn to become self-reliant.
Lakshminarayana K